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A population density model for bacterial wilt, which is caused by Ralstonia solanacearum, in hot pepper was developed to estimate the primary infection date after overwintering in the field. We developed the model mechansitically to predict reproduction of the pathogen and pathogensis on seedlings of the host. The model estimates the pathogen`s populations both in the soil and in the host. In order to quantify environmental infection factors, various temperatures and initial population densities were determined for wilt symptoms on the seedlings of hot pepper in a chamber. Once, the pathogens living in soil multiply up to 400 cells/g of soil, they can infect successfully in the host. Primary infection in a host was supposed to be started when the population of the pathogen were over cells/g of root tissue. The estimated primary infection dates of bacterial wilt in 2011 in Korea were mostly mid-July or late-July which were 10-15 days earlier than those in 2010. Two kinds of meterological data, synoptic observation and field measurements from paddy field and orchard in Kyunggi, were operated the model for comparing the result dates. About 1-3 days were earlier from field data than from synoptic observation.

Development of a Forecasting Model for Bacterial Wilt in Hot Pepper