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Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavy rainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. Themain objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum Rive r watershed was selected as th e study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981∼2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were also obtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for three different future spans, i.e. 2011 ∼2040; 2025s, 2041 ∼2070; 2055s, 2071 ∼2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculate d using HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased b y 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9%, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1 995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase i ndesign floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reduce damage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.Keywords: Climate change; RCP scenarios; Design flood; HEC-HMS*

Estimation of Design Flood for the Gyeryong Reservoir Watershed based on RCP scenarios