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,           .                     (flow modeling system, FMS) ,    ‘    (the best rainfall forecast)’  FMS       .  ,  FMS             .         2               .     2     .         4-6    .                ,           .                      . Keywords: Tampa Bay; flow modeling system (FMS); stochastic rainfall forecast; monthly flow forecast I. INTRODUCTION * The largest water-supply agency in west central Florida USA, Tampa Bay Water provides wholesale water for more than 2 million residents through a diverse regional water supply system (www.tampabaywater.org). Tampa Bay Water authority uses ground, surface and desalinated water to supply drinking water for a densely populated region covering three counties (Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas) and three cities (New Port Richey, St. Petersburg and Tampa). The local governments (e.g., cities and counties) distribute the

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida