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O trabalho trata da evolucao politica do Brasil num periodo determinado de seu desenvolvimento. Discute-se o processo de conversao do regime autoritario no pos-1964 em regime ditatorial-militar no pos-1968. O objetivo do artigo e examinar a causa da edicao do Ato Institucional n.o 5, logo, da vitoria da extrema-direita militar, e, portanto, do fracasso politico do movimento oposicionista nessa conjuntura. A questao central que informa a analise e a seguinte: e possivel encontrar uma variavel explicativa na interpretacao desse processo historico que de conta do porque da supremacia do grupo palaciano (a corrente ideologica militar entao mais influente), e da sua solucao para a crise do regime, bem como da derrota das oposicoes? O problema teorico de fundo aqui e o das determinacoes de um evento politico, isto e, a articulacao dos nexos causais que explicam determinado resultado historico. Sao examinadas duas explicacoes correntes da literatura de Ciencia Politica e Historia Politica e proposta uma terceira, que enfatiza, principalmente, variaveis de tipo ideologico. The 1964 Military Coup and the Regime of 1968: conjunctural aspects and historical variables Abstract This paper analyses Brazils political evolution during a specific moment. It discusses the processes of conversion of the post-1964 authoritarian regime to the post-1968 regime of military dictatorship. The articles principal aim is to examine the reasons for the issuing of Institutional Act 5, which meant the victory of the militarys extreme right-wing and therefore the political defeat of opposition forces. The central issue informing the analysis is the question of whether it is possible to find an explanatory variable for the interpretation of this historical process that could account for the supremacy of the grupo palaciano (the most influential ideological current within the military corporation at that time) and their particular solution for the military crisis, as well as for the defeat of opposition forces. The underlying political problem here regards the factors that determine political events, that is, the articulation of causal links that can explain a particular historical result. Two common explanations in Political Sciences and Political Historys literature are explored and a third explanation is proposed, one that places particular emphasis on ideological variables.

O GOLPE DE 1964 E O REGIME DE 1968: ASPECTOS CONJUNTURAIS E VARIÁVEIS HISTÓRICAS