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The Amazon Rainforest has an indispensable importance for terrestrial balance, since it provides several environmental services; among those that most influence climate change in Brazil and in the world are the great power of carbon storage and the effects on the hydrological cycle. Deforestation is an immediate threat to the Amazonian ecosystem because it directly affects evapotranspiration levels of the forest, making the local climate warmer and drier; and may influence the climate beyond its limits due to atmospheric circulation. This study evaluates the long-term effects of the progressive deforestation of the Amazon region on rainfall in Brazil, through CCM3-IBIS, a global climate model coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. For this purpose, four different scenarios were simulated, considering 100% of the initial soil cover in the Amazon region as tropical forest and the others, considering 20%, 60% and 100% of the initial soil cover in the Amazon region transformed into pasture. The results showed higher negative anomalies in the months of September, October and November affecting the rainfall regime in most of the North and Central-West regions of Brazil. On the other hand, the annual anomalies showed the influence of the location of the forest on the areas that had the reduced rainfall, practically all the North Region, east of the Northeast Region and north of the Center-West Region. In addition, negative annual anomaly results showed that the impact of deforestation is not linear, when in the total deforestation scenario negative anomalies were observed less intense than in the scenario where 60% of the forest was transformed into pasture. On the other hand, positive anomalies prevailed in the Southeastern and Southern Regions. This study makes possible the prior knowledge of possible changes in the Brazilian territory's climate due to the progressive deforestation of the Amazon, contributing to a better orientation in the elaboration of public policies of strategy and environmental education, aiming at the recovery of degraded areas, improvements in the management of water resources and drought and flood prevention methodologies.

IMPACTOS DO DESMATAMENTO PROGRESSIVO DA AMAZÔNIA NA PRECIPITAÇÃO DO BRASIL