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The change of the population pyramid due to low fertility and rapid aging threatens the nancial sustainabil-ity of National Health Insurance. We construct statistical models for prevalence rates and medical expensesusing National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) sample cohort data from 2002–2013. We then projectyearly expenditures and income of national health insurance until 2060 that considers various assumptionsin regards to future population structure and economic conditions.We adopt a VECM-LC model for prevalence rates and the double exponentially smoothing method forthe per capita co-payment of healthcare expense (in which the two models are institution-disease-sex-agespecic) to project of national health insurance expenditures. We accommodate various assumptions ofeconomic situations provided by the national assembly and government to produce a nancial projection fornational health insurance.Two assumptions of dependents ratios are used for the projection of national health insurance income toconduct two future population structures by the two assumptions of aging progresses and various assumptionson economic circumstances as in the expenditure projection. The health care decit is projected to be 20–30trillion won by 2030 and 40–70 trillion won by 2060 in 2015 constant price.Keywords: national health insurance, projection of nance, NHIS sample cohort DB, prevalence rate, percapita co-payment for healthcare expenses, VECM-LC

Financial Projection for National Health Insurance using NHIS Sample Cohort Data Base