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Copyright © 2017 by Türkiye Klinikleri ABSTRACT Objective: Multiple pregnancies occurred more frequently with being widespread of the assisted reproduction techniques. The recent researches showed that the possibility of multiple pregnancies has been increased by some factors such as twin pregnancy experience in the family, mothers at later ages, social properties and the number of live-born infants. The main aim of this study is to identify the statistically significant factors affecting the multiple pregnancies using count data models. Material and Methods: In this study, the number of babies born alive for the pregnant who have multiple pregnancy diagnose are considered in 2015 for a specific location, Ankara province in Turkey. For this purpose, the effects of mother’s age, the number of pregnancy, the method of delivery, mother’s blood type and previous births of the mother are statistically analyzed using various count data models. Results: Quasi Poisson and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM) regression models are used due to under-dispersion problem and these models are compared for the data set. As a result of comparison, the advantage of COM Poisson regression to other count regression models are illustrated with a real data set. According to results of COM Poisson, the number of pregnant and method of delivery (specifically cesarean type) has significant impact on the number of live-born infants at %99 significance level and the blood type of pregnant has significant impact at %95 significance level. However, the cesarean delivery has negative impact on the number of live-born infants. Conclusion: The main indicator of existence of under-dispersion is significant so fitting COMPoisson to the data in this study is meaningful. For the model selection, based on AIC values of Poisson and COM-Poisson models, the latter one is smaller hence fits better. After recovering the problem of underdispersion for the count data with COM Poisson regression, the number of pregnancy and the method of delivery has been determined as the best predictor. Besides, the blood types were identified as additional explanatory variable, but with lower significance level.

Determination of the Affecting Factors of the Number of Babies Born Alive in Multiple Pregnancies with Poisson Models