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The study of causal processes using a longitudinal design is often hampered by two methodological problems. First, the lagged effects of a predictor variable on an outcome variable tend to be weak after control for a previous measure of this outcome. One approach that is advocated when effects are weak is to increase the extremeness of the study groups; this step often increases the significance and sizes of effects. Second, causal links are often mediated through third variables, and thus relatively complex mediational analyses are needed to understand the causal processes underlying particular associations. The present paper shows whether and when these two approaches are useful in longitudinal research.

Games researchers play—extreme-groups analysis and mediation analysis in longitudinal occupational health research