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Railway emergency management is currently transforming from plan management to scenario management. Firstly, an event-driven model of scenario deduction for railway emergency was established. Then, according to the evolution process of scenarios for railway emergency, the emergency scenarios were divided into initial scenario, middle scenario and final scenario, among which the mutual relationships were analyzed. Furthermore, using Bayesian network inference algorithms, the specific process of scenario deduction for railway emergency was elaborated. Finally, taking train derailment accidentals for example, the states of node variables in scenario network were deduced. The scenario deduction results are in line with the real thing, which prove the proposed scheme feasible and effective.

An Event-Driven Scheme of Scenario Deduction for Railway Emergency