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Spatial heterogeneity of urban expansion and macro-scale influence of socioeconomic development are the two main problems in urban-expansion modelling. In this study, we used the SLEUTH-3r model to simulate urban expansion at a fine scale (30 m) for a large urban agglomeration (22000 km) in north-western China. Multiple spatial constraint factors were integrated into the model through Ordinary Least Regression and Binary Logistic Regression to simulate the spatial heterogeneity in urban expansion. A critical parameter—the diffusion multiplier (DM)—was used to simulate the macro-scale influence of socioeconomic development in the urban model. These two methods have greatly enhanced the ability of the SLEUTH-3r model to simulate urban expansion with high heterogeneity, and adapt to urban growth driven by socioeconomic development and government policy.

Improving Urban Simulation Accuracy through Analysis of Control Factors: A Case Study in the City Belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia, China