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Getting people cycling is an increasingly common objective in transportplanning institutions worldwide. A growing evidence base indicates that highquality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. Yet for infrastructureand other cycling measures to be effective, it is important to intervene in theright places, such as along 'desire lines' of high latent demand. This createsthe need for tools and methods to help answer the question 'where to build?'.Following a brief review of the policy and research context related to thisquestion, this paper describes the design, features and potential applicationsof such a tool. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is an online, interactiveplanning support system which was initially developed to explore and mapcycling potential across England (see www.pct.bike). Based onorigin-destination data, it models and visualises cycling levels at area,desire line, route and route network levels, for current levels of cycling, andfor scenario-based 'cycling futures'. Four scenarios are presented, including'Go Dutch' and 'Ebikes', which explore what would happen if English peoplecycled as much as Dutch people and the potential impact of electric cycles oncycling uptake. The cost effectiveness of investment depends not only on thenumber of additional trips cycled, but on wider impacts such as health andcarbon benefits. The PCT reports these at area, desire line, and route levelfor each scenario. The PCT is open source, facilitating the creation ofadditional scenarios and its deployment in new contexts. We conclude that thePCT illustrates the potential of online tools to inform transport decisions andraises the wider issue of how models should be used in transport planning.

The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning