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Spatially detailed information on permafrost distribution and change withclimate is important for land use planning, infrastructure development, andenvironmental assessments. However, the required soil and surficial geologymaps in the North are coarse, and projected climate scenarios vary widely.Considering these uncertainties, we propose a new approach to mappingpermafrost distribution and change by integrating remote sensing data, fieldmeasurements, and a process-based model. Land cover types from satelliteimagery are used to capture the general land conditions and to improve theresolution of existing permafrost maps. For each land cover type, fieldobservations are used to estimate the probabilities of different groundconditions. A process-based model is used to quantify the evolution ofpermafrost for each ground condition under three representative climatescenarios (low, medium, and high warming). From the model results, theprobability of permafrost occurrence and the most likely permafrostconditions are determined. We apply this approach at 20 m resolution to alarge area in Northwest Territories, Canada. Mapped permafrost conditionsare in agreement with field observations and other studies. The datarequirements, model robustness, and computation time are reasonable, and thisapproach may serve as a practical means to mapping permafrost and changes athigh resolution in other regions

A new approach to mapping permafrost and change incorporating uncertainties in ground conditions and climate projections