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. Increasing melt of ice sheets at their floating or vertical interfaces with the ocean is a major driver of marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise. However, the extent to which warm, salty seawater may drive melting under the grounded portions of ice sheets is still not well understood. Previous work has explored the possibility that dense seawater intrudes beneath relatively light subglacial freshwater discharge, similar to the “salt wedge” observed in many estuarine systems. In this study, we develop a generalized theory of layered seawater intrusion under grounded ice, including where subglacial hydrology occurs as a macroporous water sheet over impermeable beds or as microporous Darcy flow through permeable till. Using predictions from this theory, we show that seawater intrusion over flat or reverse-sloping impermeable beds may feasibly occur up to tens of kilometers upstream of a glacier terminus or grounding line. On the other hand, seawater is unlikely to intrude more than tens of meters through permeable till. Simulations using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) show that even just a few hundred meters of basal melt caused by seawater intrusion upstream of marine ice sheet grounding lines can cause projections of marine ice sheet volume loss to be 10 %–50 % higher. Kilometers of intrusion-induced basal melt can cause projected ice sheet volume loss to more than double. These results suggest that further observational, experimental and numerical investigations are needed to determine the conditions under which seawater intrusion occurs and whether it will indeed drive rapid marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise in the future.

Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice