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. Land cover in sub-polar and alpine regions of northern and easternEurope have already begun changing due to natural and anthropogenic changessuch as afforestation. This will impact the regional climate and hydrologyupon which societies in these regions are highly reliant. This study aims toidentify the impacts of afforestation/reforestation (hereafterafforestation) on snow and the snow-albedo effect and highlight potentialimprovements for future model development. The study uses an ensemble ofnine regional climate models for two different idealised experimentscovering a 30-year period; one experiment replaces most land cover in Europewith forest, while the other experiment replaces all forested areas withgrass. The ensemble consists of nine regional climate models composed ofdifferent combinations of five regional atmospheric models and six landsurface models. Results show that afforestation reduces the snow-albedosensitivity index and enhances snowmelt. While the direction of change isrobustly modelled, there is still uncertainty in the magnitude of change.The greatest differences between models emerge in the snowmelt season. Oneregional climate model uses different land surface models which showsconsistent changes between the three simulations during the accumulationperiod but differs in the snowmelt season. Together these results point tothe need for further model development in representing both grass–snow andforest–snow interactions during the snowmelt season. Pathways toaccomplishing this include (1) a more sophisticated representation of foreststructure, (2) kilometre-scale simulations, and (3) more observational studieson vegetation–snow interactions in northern Europe.

the cryosphere

Land–atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) models – Part 2: The role of changing vegetation