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. Four calving events of Petermann Glacier happened in2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012, which resulted in the drift and deterioration ofnumerous ice islands, some reaching as far as offshore Newfoundland. Thepresence of these ice islands in the eastern Canadian Arctic increases therisk of interaction with offshore operations and shipping activities. Thisstudy uses the recently developed Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deteriorationand Detection database to investigate the fracture events that these iceislands experienced, and it presents a probabilistic model for the conditionaloccurrence of such events by analyzing the atmospheric and oceanicconditions that drive the causes behind the ice island fracture events.Variables representing the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that the iceislands were subjected to are extracted from reanalysis datasets and theninterpolated to evaluate their distributions for both fracture andnon-fracture events. The probability of fracture event occurrence fordifferent combinations of input variable conditions is quantified usingBayes' theorem. Out of the seven variables analyzed in this study, watertemperature and ocean current speed are identified as the most and leastimportant contributors, respectively, to the fracture events of thePetermann ice islands. It is also revealed that the ice island fractureprobability increases to 75 % as the ice islands encounter extreme (veryhigh) atmospheric and oceanic conditions. A validation scheme is presentedusing the cross-validation approach and Pareto principle, and an average errorof 13 %–39 % is reported in the fracture probability estimations. Thepresented probabilistic model has a predictive capability for futurefracture events of ice islands and could be of particular interest tooffshore and marine ice and risk management in the eastern Canadian Arctic.Future research, however, is necessary for model training and testing tofurther validate this ice island fracture model.

A probabilistic model for fracture events of Petermann ice islands under the influence of atmospheric and oceanic conditions