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. Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillationsincluding the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific DecadalOscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA),and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winterweather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effectof these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activityrecords from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approachfor gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalancheproblem information published in public avalanche bulletins during thewinters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculateseasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, andseason, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regressionmodels to explore both the overall and regional effects of thePacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on thenature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negativeeffects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably wellwith the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. Theanalysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalenceof deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find severalsmaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response tothese oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short,our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problemassessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Sincethe predictability of the most important atmosphere–ocean oscillations iscontinuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanchehazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalancheforecasts in a relatively simple way.

Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada