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. Melt ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice duringspring, influencing how much solar radiation is absorbed into the seaice–ocean system, which in turn impacts the ablation of sea ice during themelt season. Accordingly, melt pond fraction (fp) has been shown to be auseful predictor of sea ice area during the summer months. Sea ice dynamicand thermodynamic processes operating within the narrow channels and inletsof the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) during the summer months aredifficult for model simulations to accurately resolve. Additionalinformation on fp variability in advance of the melt season within theCAA could help constrain model simulations and/or provide useful informationin advance of the shipping season. Here, we use RADARSAT-2 imagery topredict and analyze peak melt pond fraction (fpk) and evaluate itsutility to provide predictive information with respect to sea ice areaduring the melt season within the CAA from 2009–2018. The temporalvariability of RADARSAT-2 fpk over the 10-year record was found to bestrongly linked to the variability of mean April multi-year ice area with astatistically significant detrended correlation (R) of R=-0.89. Thespatial distribution of RADARSAT-2 fpk was found to be in excellentagreement with the sea ice stage of development prior to the meltseason. RADARSAT-2 fpk values were in good agreement withfpk observed from in situ observations but were found to be ∼ 0.05 larger compared to MODIS fpk observations. Dynamically stable seaice regions within the CAA exhibited higher detrended correlations betweenRADARSAT-2 fpk and summer sea ice area. Our results show that RADARSAT-2fpk can be used to provide predictive information about summer sea icearea for a key shipping region of the Northwest Passage.

Spring melt pond fraction in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago predicted from RADARSAT-2