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. We use a numerical flow line model to simulate thebehaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a World Glacier Monitoring Service reference glacier situated in theNorth Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), inresponse to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE).The model consists of a coupled ice flow–mass balance model that alsotakes into account the evolution of a supraglacial debris cover. Aftersimulation of the past retreat by applying a dynamic calibration procedure,the model was forced with data for the future period under differentscenarios regarding temperature, precipitation and debris input. The mainresults show that the glacier length and surface area have decreased by ca.1.4 km (ca. −29.5 %) and ca. 1.6 km2 (−35.2 %)respectively between the initial state in 1752 CE and present-dayconditions. Some minor stabilization and/or readvancements of the glacierhave occurred, but the general trend shows an almost continuous retreatsince the 1850s. Future projections using CMIP5 temperature andprecipitation data exhibit a further decline of the glacier. Under constantpresent-day climate conditions, its length and surface area will furthershrink by ca. 30 % by 2100 CE. However, even under the most extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, the glacier will not have disappeared completely by the end of the modelling period. The presence of an increasingly widespreadsupraglacial debris cover is shown to significantly delay glacier retreat,depending on the interaction between the prevailing climatic conditions, thedebris input location, the debris mass flux magnitude and the time ofrelease of debris sources from the surrounding topography.

Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE