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. Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warmingclimate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the futureconsequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropowerindustry and risk management. However, the performance of such iceflow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lackof long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess theperformance of the Elmer/Ice full Stokes ice flow model using the longdataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snoutfluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer deGlace glacier, France. Ice flow modeling results are compared indetail to comprehensive glaciological observations over 4 decadesincluding both a period of glacier expansion preceding a long periodof decay. To our knowledge, a comparison to data at this detail isunprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs thevelocity, elevation and length variations of this glacier despite somediscrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validatedmodel was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer deGlace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climatescenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, the largest glacier inFrance, with a length of 20 km, could retreat by 2 to6 km over the next 3 decades.

the cryosphere

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution