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. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its futureevolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitudehydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrostdynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previousgeneration – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost toclimate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures arerelatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce abias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Thereforeevaluation metrics are defined in relation to the airtemperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrostphysics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that ofthe CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a smallnumber of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. Thesechanges lead to a small overall improvement in the representation ofthe permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulationof maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest thatmore models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profileas a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawedvolume of the top 2  m of the soil defined from the model soilprofiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrostdynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volumein the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by10  % –40  % ∘ C - 1 of global mean surface airtemperature increase.

Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change