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. As glaciers adjust their size in response to climatevariations, long-term changes in meltwater production can be expected,affecting the local availability of water resources. We investigate glacierrunoff in the period 1955–2016 in the Maipo River basin (4843 km2,33.0–34.3∘ S, 69.8–70.5∘ W), in the semiarid Andes of Chile.The basin contains more than 800 glaciers, which cover 378 km2 in total (inventoriedin 2000). We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of 26 glacierswith the physically oriented and fully distributed TOPKAPI (Topographic Kinematic Approximation and Integration)-ETHglacio-hydrological model and extrapolate the results to the entire basin.TOPKAPI-ETH is run at a daily time step using several glaciological andmeteorological datasets, and its results are evaluated against streamflowrecords, remotely sensed snow cover, and geodetic mass balances for theperiods 1955–2000 and 2000–2013. Results show that in 1955–2016 glacier mass balance hada general decreasing trend as a basin average but also had differences betweenthe main sub-catchments. Glacier volume decreased by one-fifth (from18.6±4.5 to 14.9±2.9 km3). Runoff from the initiallyglacierized areas was 177±25 mm yr−1 (16±7 % of thetotal contributions to the basin), but it shows a decreasing sequence ofmaxima, which can be linked to the interplay between a decrease inprecipitation since the 1980s and the reduction of ice melt. Glaciers in theMaipo River basin will continue retreating because they are not inequilibrium with the current climate. In a hypothetical constant climatescenario, glacier volume would reduce to 81±38 % of the year 2000volume, and glacier runoff would be 78±30 % of the 1955–2016average. This would considerably decrease the drought mitigation capacity ofthe basin.

Glacier runoff variations since 1955 in the Maipo River basin, in the semiarid Andes of central Chile