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. The evolution of permafrost on the Kara shelf is reconstructed forthe past 125 kyr. The work includes zoning of the shelf according togeological history; compiling sea level and ground temperature scenarioswithin the distinguished zones; and modeling to evaluate the thickness ofpermafrost and the distribution of frozen, cooled and thawed deposits.Special attention is given to the scenarios of the evolution of groundtemperature in key stages of history that determined the current state ofthe Kara shelf permafrost zone: characterization of the extensiveness andduration of the existence of the sea during stage 3 of the marine oxygen isotopestratigraphy (MIS-3),the spread of glaciation and dammed basins in MIS-2. The present shelf isdivided into areas of continuous, discontinuous-to-sporadic and sporadicpermafrost. Cooled deposits occur at the western and northwestern waterzones and correspond to areas of MIS-2 glaciation. Permafrost occurs in theperiglacial domain that is within a zone of modern sea depth from 0 to 100 m, adjacent to the continent. The distribution of permafrost is mostlysporadic in the southwest of this zone, while it is mostly continuous in thenortheast. The thickness of permafrost does not exceed 100 m in thesoutheast and ranges from 100 to 300 m in the northeast. Thawed depositsare confined to the estuaries of large rivers and the deepwater part of theSt. Anna trench. The modeling results are correlated to the available fielddata and are presented as a geocryological map. The formation of frozen,cooled and thawed deposits of the region is inferred to depend on the spreadof ice sheets, sea level, and duration of shelf freezing and thawingperiods.

The current state and 125 kyr history of permafrost on the Kara Sea shelf: modeling constraints