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. A reliable knowledge and assessment of the sea ice conditions and theirevolution in time is a priority for numerous decision makers in the domainsof coastal and offshore management and engineering as well as in commercialnavigation. As of today, countless research projects aimed at both modellingand mapping past, actual and future sea ice conditions were completed usingsea ice numerical models, statistical models, educated guesses or remotesensing imagery. From this research, reliable information helping tounderstand sea ice evolution in space and in time is available tostakeholders. However, no research has, until present, assessed the evolutionof sea ice cover with a frequency modelling approach, by identifying theunderlying theoretical distribution describing the sea ice behaviour at agiven point in space and time. This project suggests the development of aprobabilistic tool, named IcePAC, based on frequency modelling of historical1978–2015 passive microwave sea ice concentrations maps from the EUMETSATOSI-409 product, to study the sea ice spatio-temporal behaviour in the watersof the Hudson Bay system in northeast Canada. Grid-cell-scale models arebased on the generalized beta distribution and generated at a weekly temporalresolution. Results showed coherence with the Canadian Ice Service 1981–2010Sea Ice Climatic Atlas average freeze-up and melt-out dates for numerouscoastal communities in the study area and showed that it is possible toevaluate a range of plausible events, such as the shortest and longestprobable ice-free season duration, for any given location in the simulationdomain. Results obtained in this project pave the way towards variousanalyses on sea ice concentration spatio-temporal distribution patterns thatwould gain in terms of information content and value by relying on the kindof probabilistic information and simulation data available from the IcePACtool.

IcePAC – a probabilistic tool to study sea ice spatio-temporal dynamics: application to the Hudson Bay area