English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

. The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2  ∘ C andto pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5  ∘ C relative to the pre-industrialperiod. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbonemissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed thisambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end ofthis century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined asexceeding +2 ∘ C global average warming relative to the pre-industrialperiod. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent massbalance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To dothis, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces thatcan exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day massbalance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, andtemperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed massbalance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled usingthe high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. TheCMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on thecriteria of passing 2  ∘ C global average warming during this century. Theensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standarddeviation is - 64 ± 5  % for all glaciers excluding those on theperipheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-modelmean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to theboundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which losemore than 75 % of their initial volume by the end of the century areAlaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, centralEurope, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and NewZealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalentcontribution is 215.2±21.3  mm. The largest contributors to sea levelrise are Alaska ( 44.6±1.1  mm), Arctic Canada north and south ( 34.9±3.0  mm), the Russian Arctic ( 33.3±4.8  mm), Greenland ( 20.1±4.4 ), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west),( 18.0±0.8  mm), southern Andes ( 14.4±0.1  mm), and Svalbard ( 17.0±4.6  mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated massbalance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1 mmof sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses willhave inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply inglacier-fed river systems.

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios