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. Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers and the corresponding Crosson and Dotsonice shelves have undergone speedup, thinning, and rapid grounding-lineretreat in recent years, leaving them in a state likely conducive to futureretreat. We conducted a suite of numerical model simulations of theseglaciers and compared the results to observations to determine the processescontrolling their recent evolution. The model simulations indicate that thestate of these glaciers in the 1990s was not inherently unstable, i.e., thatsmall perturbations to the grounding line would not necessarily have causedthe large retreat that has been observed. Instead, sustained, elevated meltat the grounding line was needed to cause the observed retreat. Weakening ofthe margins of Crosson Ice Shelf may have hastened the onset ofgrounding-line retreat but is unlikely to have initiated these rapid changeswithout an accompanying increase in melt. In the simulations that mostclosely match the observed thinning, speedup, and retreat, modeledgrounding-line retreat and ice loss continue unabated throughout the21st century, and subsequent retreat along Smith Glacier's troughappears likely. Given the rapid progression of grounding-line retreat in themodel simulations, thinning associated with the retreat of Smith Glacier mayreach the ice divide and undermine a portion of the Thwaites catchment asquickly as changes initiated at the Thwaites terminus.

Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers