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. In this study, we propose a methodology to estimate the spatialdistribution of destabilizing rock glaciers, with a focus on the French Alps.We mapped geomorphological features that can be typically found in cases ofrock glacier destabilization (e.g. crevasses and scarps) using orthoimagestaken from 2000 to 2013. A destabilization rating was assigned by taking intoaccount the evolution of these mapped destabilization geomorphologicalfeatures and by observing the surface deformation patterns of the rockglacier, also using the available orthoimages. This destabilization ratingthen served as input to model the occurrence of rock glacier destabilizationin relation to terrain attributes and to spatially predict thesusceptibility to destabilization at a regional scale. Significant evidenceof destabilization could be observed in 46 rock glaciers, i.e. 10 % of thetotal active rock glaciers in the region. Based on our susceptibility modelof destabilization occurrence, it was found that this phenomenon is morelikely to occur in elevations around the 0  ∘ C isotherm (2700–2900 m a.s.l.),on north-facing slopes, steep terrain (25 to 30 ∘ ) and flat to slightlyconvex topographies. Model performance was good (AUROC  =  0.76), and thesusceptibility map also performed well at reproducing observable patterns ofdestabilization. About 3 km 2 of creeping permafrost, or 10 % of thesurface occupied by active rock glaciers, had a high susceptibility todestabilization. Considering we observed that only half of these areas ofcreep are currently showing destabilization evidence, we suspect there is ahigh potential for future rock glacier destabilization within the FrenchAlps.

Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps