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. The diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied, but previous research has mostly focused on time-mean changesin sea ice rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test thehypothesis that future interannual Arctic sea ice area variability willincrease by utilizing 40 independent simulations from the Community EarthSystem Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) for the 1920–2100 period and augmentthis with simulations from 12 models participating in the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both CESM-LE and CMIP5 modelsproject that ice area variability will indeed grow substantially but notmonotonically in every month. There is also a strong seasonal dependence inthe magnitude and timing of future variability increases that is robust amongCESM ensemble members. The variability generally correlates with the averageice retreat rate, before there is an eventual disappearance in both terms asthe ice pack becomes seasonal in summer and autumn by late century. The peakin variability correlates best with the total area of ice between 0.2 and0.6 m monthly thickness, indicating that substantial future thinning of theice pack is required before variability maximizes. Within this range, themost favorable thickness for high areal variability depends on the season,especially whether ice growth or ice retreat processes dominate. Our findingssuggest that thermodynamic melting (top, bottom, lateral) and growth (frazil,congelation) processes are more important than dynamical mechanisms, namelyice export and ridging, in controlling ice area variability.

Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models