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. Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables onsoil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated.For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using anartificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variabilitymainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens andbryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layerstogether substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil.As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8  ∘C  higher whenclimate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of theArctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables andmore often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show thatprojected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layerthickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking intoaccount future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variablesand (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions inland surface models.

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions