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. To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annualpredictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIE AO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemblehindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October foreach year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using theModel for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea iceconcentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: theDecember SIE AO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomalycorrelation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to thesubsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausiblemechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Seafrom spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing,and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, theSeptember SIE AO predictions are skillful for lead times of up totwo months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and EastSiberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies.

Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC