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. Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespreadimpacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmentalprotection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermaldegradation of permafrost over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960sto the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) byintegrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surfacetemperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values,and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographicallyweighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise ofapproximately 0.04  ∘ C a −1 in the decadal mean MAAT values overthe past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used toconvert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that theclimate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the pasthalf century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost isapproximately 153.76×104  km 2 , which corresponds to88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 %of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of thecool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the verywarm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition.Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likelythawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The meanelevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawingpermafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increasedrisks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects thewell-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the ThirdPole.

Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau