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. Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid,potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response toenhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest alarge spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to acentury. It is therefore important to investigate how differentapproximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basalfriction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here,we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels ofcomplexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantifytheir effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat andits sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model isused, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partiallyfloating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, allsimulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the samepreferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of theglacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on thewestern side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo anaccelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacialridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of theprojections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution tosea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, thecontribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, withdifferences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm.

Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws