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. Arctic landfast ice extent and duration are examined from observations, ice assimilations,ocean reanalyses and coupled models. From observations andassimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions lastmore than 5 months the first-year ice typically grows to more than 2 m and israrely less than 1 m. The observed spatial distribution of landfast iceclosely matches assimilation products but less so for ocean reanalyses andcoupled models. Although models generally struggle to represent the landfastice necessary to emulate the observed import/export of sea ice in regionsfavourable to landfast ice conditions, some do exhibit both a realisticclimatology and a realistic decline of landfast ice extent under ananthropogenic forcing scenario. In these more realistic simulations,projections show that an extensive landfast ice cover should remain for atleast 5 months of the year, well into the end of the 21st century. This is instark contrast with the simulations that have an unrealistic emulation oflandfast ice conditions. In these simulations, slow and packed ice conditionsshrink markedly over the same period. In all simulations and in areas withlandfast ice that lasts more than 5 months, the end-of-winter sea ice thicknessremains between 1 and 2 m, well beyond the second half of the century. It isconcluded that in the current generation of climate models, projections ofwinter sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the LaptevSea are overly sensitive to the representation of landfast ice conditions andthat ongoing development in landfast ice parameterization will likely betterconstrain these projections.

What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing