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. We present a method for analysing changes in the modelled volume budget ofthe Arctic sea ice as the ice declines during the 21st century. We apply themethod to the CMIP5 global coupled model HadGEM2-ES to evaluate how thebudget components evolve under a range of different forcing scenarios. As theclimate warms and the ice cover declines, the sea ice processes that changethe most in HadGEM2-ES are summer melting at the top surface of the ice dueto increased net downward radiation and basal melting due to extra heat fromthe warming ocean. There is also extra basal ice formation due to thethinning ice. However, the impact of these changes on the volume budget isaffected by the declining ice cover. For example, as the autumn ice coverdeclines the volume of ice formed by basal growth declines as there is areduced area over which this ice growth can occur. As a result, the biggestcontribution to Arctic ice decline in HadGEM2-ES is the reduction in thetotal amount of basal ice growth during the autumn and early winter. Changes in the volume budget during the 21st century have a distinctiveseasonal cycle, with processes contributing to ice decline occurring inMay–June and September to November. During July and August the total amountof sea ice melt decreases, again due to the reducing ice cover. The choice of forcing scenario affects the rate of ice decline and the timingand magnitude of changes in the volume budget components. For the HadGEM2-ESmodel and for the range of scenarios considered for CMIP5, the mean changesin the volume budget depend strongly on the evolving ice area and areindependent of the speed at which the ice cover declines.

Investigating future changes in the volume budget of the Arctic sea ice in a coupled climate model