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. Glacio-hydrologicalmodels (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climatechange will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety ofsimplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance ofthese are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyondglobal summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies incompeting model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models tosimulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the fullrange of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, theglacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisa River basin insouthern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived fromobservations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertaintyof each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits ofacceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate theacceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. Thisframework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt andthree run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown toimprove acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but doesnot always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasisingthe difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-modelprediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt andrun-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on riverdischarge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence ondischarge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure onshorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structuralconfigurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population ofsignatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorousassessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM processhypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnosestructural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of systembehaviour using a LOA framework.

Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection