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. This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators forcharacterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorologicaldrivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the NorthernFrench Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis andobservations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEXGCM–RCMpairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs wereused to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailedsnowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snowaccounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have amuch smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rathersimilar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation ofthe ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannualvariability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second halfof the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, andcontinued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latterleading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in localmeteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with globaltemperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2  ∘ C abovepreindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively,of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005.Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding2  ∘ C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorialindicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or naturalhazards.

the cryosphere

Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps