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In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (westernPeary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled iceflow–mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from aprecipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model(RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-dayrunoff–retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanicalmodel is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solutionis needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under1961–1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that isoverall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness,temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations.For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and icethickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source relatedto infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB–elevationfeedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. Thiscauses the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a changein climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution.Under constant 2005–2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of theice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of itspresent-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice andresultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but willbe insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In awarmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior isprojected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with thepresent-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high-warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappeararound AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projectedprecipitation regime and the simulated present-day geometry

Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)