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This study focuses on an assessment of the future snowdepth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data fromtwo diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for theAlpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 mhorizontal resolution for the reference period (1999–2012). Futuretemperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaledGCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including oneintervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future timeperiods (2020–2049, 2045–2074, 2070–2099). By applying simple daily changevalues to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scaleclimate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extremechanges. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations,time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenariosdemonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m.The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m,where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century.Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter seasonstarts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlierin this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may beroughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500–800 or 700–1000 m for thetwo non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century thenumber of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 mand only 0–2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for theintervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario periodbut clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lowersnow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of70 %)

How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps