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Changes in the depth of the freshwater–seawater interface in epishelf lakes\udhave been used to infer long-term changes in the minimum thickness of ice\udshelves; however, little is known about the dynamics of epishelf lakes and\udwhat other factors may influence their depth. Continuous observations\udcollected between 2011 and 2014 in the Milne Fiord epishelf lake, in the\udCanadian Arctic, showed that the depth of the halocline varied seasonally by\udup to 3.3 m, which was comparable to interannual variability. The seasonal\uddepth variation was controlled by the magnitude of surface meltwater inflow\udand the hydraulics of the inferred outflow pathway, a narrow basal channel in\udthe Milne Ice Shelf. When seasonal variation and an episodic mixing of the\udhalocline were accounted for, long-term records of depth indicated there was\udno significant change in thickness of ice along the basal channel from 1983\udto 2004, followed by a period of steady thinning at 0.50 m a<sup>−1</sup> between\ud2004 and 2011. Rapid thinning at 1.15 m a<sup>−1</sup> then occurred from 2011 to\ud2014, corresponding to a period of warming regional air temperatures.\udContinued warming is expected to lead to the breakup of the ice shelf and the\udimminent loss of the last known epishelf lake in the Arctic

Dynamic response of an Arctic epishelf lake to seasonal and long-term forcing: implications for ice shelf thickness