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Permafrost is a sensitive element of the cryosphere, but operational\udmonitoring of the ground thermal conditions on large spatial scales is still\udlacking. Here, we demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme that is capable\udof estimating the transient evolution of ground temperatures and active layer\udthickness by means of the ground thermal model CryoGrid 2. The scheme is\udapplied to an area of approximately 16 000 km<sup>2</sup> in the Lena River\uddelta (LRD) in NE Siberia for a period of 14 years. The forcing data sets at\ud1 km spatial and weekly temporal resolution are synthesized from satellite\udproducts and fields of meteorological variables from the ERA-Interim\udreanalysis. To assign spatially distributed ground thermal properties, a\udstratigraphic classification based on geomorphological observations and\udmapping is constructed, which accounts for the large-scale patterns of\udsediment types, ground ice and surface properties in the Lena River delta.  \udA comparison of the model forcing to in situ measurements on Samoylov Island\udin the southern part of the study area yields an acceptable agreement for the\udpurpose of ground thermal modeling, for\udsurface temperature, snow depth, and timing of the onset and termination of\udthe winter snow cover. The model results are compared to observations of\udground temperatures and thaw depths at nine sites in the Lena River delta,\udsuggesting that thaw depths are in most cases reproduced to within\ud0.1 m or less and multi-year averages of ground temperatures within\ud1–2 °C. Comparison of monthly average temperatures at depths of\ud2–3 m in five boreholes yielded an RMSE of 1.1 °C and a\udbias of −0.9 °C for the model results. The highest ground\udtemperatures are calculated for grid cells close to the main river channels\udin the south as well as areas with sandy sediments and low organic and ice\udcontents in the central delta, where also the largest thaw depths occur. On\udthe other hand, the lowest temperatures are modeled for the eastern part,\udwhich is an area with low surface temperatures and snow depths. The lowest\udthaw depths are modeled for Yedoma permafrost featuring very high ground ice\udand soil organic contents in the southern parts of the delta.  \udThe comparison to in situ observations indicates that transient ground\udtemperature modeling forced by remote-sensing data is generally capable of\udestimating the thermal state of permafrost (TSP) and its time evolution in the Lena\udRiver delta. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote\uddetection of ground thermal conditions and active layer thickness in\udpermafrost areas

Transient modeling of the ground thermal conditions using satellite data in the Lena River delta, Siberia