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Observations over the past 2 decades show substantial ice loss associatedwith the speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use aregional three-dimensional outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of JakobshavnIsbræ (JI) located in western Greenland. Our approach is to model andunderstand the recent behaviour of JI with a physical process-based model.Using atmospheric forcing and an ocean parametrization we tune our model toreproduce observed frontal changes of JI during 1990–2014. In oursimulations, most of the JI retreat during 1990–2014 is driven by the oceanparametrization used and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largelygoverned by bed geometry. In general, the study shows significant progress inmodelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI. Our results suggestthat the overall variability in modelled horizontal velocities is a responseto variations in terminus position. The model simulates two majoraccelerations that are consistent with observations of changes in glacierterminus. The first event occurred in 1998 and was triggered by a retreat ofthe front and moderate thinning of JI prior to 1998. The second event, whichstarted in 2003 and peaked in the summer 2004, was triggered by the finalbreak-up of the floating tongue. This break-up reduced the buttressing at theJI terminus that resulted in further thinning. As the terminus retreated overa reverse bed slope into deeper water, sustained high velocities over thelast decade have been observed at JI. Our model provides evidence that the1998 and 2003 flow accelerations are most likely initiated by the oceanparametrization used but JI's subsequent dynamic response was governed by itsown bed geometry. We are unable to reproduce the observed 2010–2012 terminusretreat in our simulations. We attribute this limitation to eitherinaccuracies in basal topography or to misrepresentations of the climaticforcings that were applied. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate thepreviously observed increase in mass loss through 2014

Modelled glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ