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Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk\udof release to the atmosphere under warming climate scenarios. Ice-wedge\udpolygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of\udmicrotopographic features. This microtopography plays a critical role in\udregulating the fine-scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in\udthe polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling\udof thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding\udthe landscape behavior under the current as well as changing climate. We present\udhere an end-to-end effort for high-resolution numerical modeling of thermal\udhydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to\udcharacterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the\udthermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites\udnear Barrow, Alaska, spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygons, representing a broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multiphase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using a high-resolution lidar digital elevation model (DEM), microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high-resolution model mesh. The best available soil data from field observations and literature were utilized to represent the complex heterogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. Simulation results demonstrate the ability of the developed modeling approach to capture – without recourse to model calibration – several aspects of the complex thermal regimes across the sites, and provide insights into the critical role of polygonal tundra microtopography in regulating the thermal dynamics of the carbon-rich permafrost soils. Areas of significant disagreement between model results and observations highlight the importance of field-based observations of soil thermal and hydraulic properties for modeling-based studies of permafrost thermal dynamics, and provide motivation and guidance for future observations that will help address model and data gaps affecting our current understanding of the system

Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape