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Global biosphere models vary greatly in their projections of future changesof global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and aggregated global SOC massesin response to climate change. We estimated the certainty (likelihood) andquantity of increases and decreases on a half-degree grid. We assessed theeffect of changes in controlling factors, including net primary productivity(NPP), litter quality, soil acidity, water saturation, depth of permafrost,land use, temperature, and aridity associated with probabilities (Bayesiannetwork) on an embedded, temporally discrete, three-pool decomposition model.In principle, controlling factors were discretized into classes, where each class wasassociated with a probability and linked to an output variable. This createsa network of links that are ultimately linked to a set of equations forcarbon (C) input and output to and from soil C pools. The probability-weightedresults show that, globally, climate effects on NPP had the strongest impacton SOC stocks and the certainty of change after 75 years. Actual land usehad the greatest effect locally because the assumed certainty of land usechange per unit area was small. The probability-weighted contribution ofclimate to decomposition was greatest in the humid tropics because ofgreater absolute effects on decomposition fractions at higher temperatures.In contrast, climate effects on decomposition fractions were small in coldregions. Differences in decomposition rates between contemporary and futureclimate were greatest in arid subtropical regions because of projectedstrong increases in precipitation. Warming in boreal and arctic regionsincreased NPP, balancing or outweighing potential losses from thawing ofpermafrost. Across contrasting NPP scenarios, tropical mountain forests wereidentified as hotspots of future highly certain C losses. Global soil C masswill increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if NPP increases due tocarbon dioxide fertilization. At a certainty level of 75%, soil C masswill not change if CO<sub>2</sub>-induced increase of NPP is limited by nutrients

Global distribution of soil organic carbon – Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate