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. For many applications, it would be extremely useful to haveinsights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead.However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilisticwhich raises challenges both in generating forecasts and theirinterpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shownpromising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, wediscuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined waterbalance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, LakeVictoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability includedthe unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significantlinks to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Otherlessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need forcare in the choice of performance metrics.

Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes