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. In many countries, rivers are the primary supply ofwater. A number of uses are concerned (drinking water, irrigation,hydropower, etc.) and they can be strongly affected by watershortages. Therefore, there is a need for the early anticipation of low-flowperiods to improve water management. This is strengthened by the perspectiveof having more severe summer low flows in the context of climate change.Several French institutions (Inrae, BRGM, Météo-France, EDF andLorraine University) have been collaborating over the last years to developan operational tool for low-flow forecasting, called PREMHYCE. It was testedin real time on 70 catchments in continental France in 2017, and on 48 additional catchments in 2018. PREMHYCE includes five hydrological models:one uncalibrated physically-based model and four storage-type models ofvarious complexity, which are calibrated on gauged catchments. The modelsassimilate flow observations or implement post-processing techniques.Low-flow forecasts can be issued up to 90 d ahead, based on ensemblestreamflow prediction (ESP) using historical climatic data as ensembles offuture input scenarios. These climatic data (precipitation, potentialevapotranspiration and temperature) are provided by Météo-Francewith the daily gridded SAFRAN reanalysis over the 1958–2017 period, whichincludes a wide range of conditions. The tool provides numerical andgraphical outputs, including the forecasted ranges of low flows, and theprobability to be under low-flow warning thresholds provided by the users.Outputs from the different hydrological models can be combined through asimple multi-model approach to improve the robustness of forecasts. Resultsare illustrated for the Ill River at Didenheim (northeastern France) wherethe 2017 low-flow period was particularly severe and for which PREMHYCEprovided useful forecasts.

PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting