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. Nowadays, during the period of the global climate change,scientists around the world have noticed an increased incidence of extremenatural disasters. The authors of the study suggested methods of usingclimate change as a part of a genetic model of maximal floods runoff. Thismodel makes possible the introducing of “climate changes” directly throughthe maximal stocks of snow and precipitation during the spring flood andrunoff coefficients. The object of study is the basin of the Southern Bug –one of the largest rivers in Ukraine, which flows within two geographicalzones – forest-steppe and steppe. Overall results using scenario RCP 4.5showed a decrease of runoff by the end of 2050 from 20 % in the north partof the basin (the forest-steppe zone) to 50 % – in the south (the steppepart of basin). On the other hand, the characteristics of minimal river flowin the Southern Bug basin – winter and summer low waters had been analyzed.One option for low water flow simulation is to study the connection betweenthe drought index (e.g. SPEI) and the minimal water. Studies show that suchcorrelation exists, so knowing the forecast of drought index it is possibleto project the value of minimal water discharge, which is the object of theresearch.

Extreme hydrological phenomena in the forest steppe and steppe zones of Ukraine under the climate change