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. Significant undeveloped brackish groundwater resourcesexist within the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer System (Gulf Coast Aquifer System)near Houston, Texas, USA. As the development of these frontier resources isimminent, an improved understanding of the impact development may have onthe availability of the resource and land subsidence is needed. In thisregion, land subsidence is caused by the depressurization of the aquifer andcompaction of the many clay lenses in the subsurface. The Gulf Coast AquiferSystem in the study area includes three primary water bearing units (fromshallow to deep): the Chicot (Pleistocene and Pliocene) and Evangeline(Pliocene and Miocene) aquifers, and the Jasper aquifer (Miocene). Althoughthere has been much research and data supporting the causal relation betweenwater-level decline and subsidence in the areas of fresh groundwaterdevelopment, little data exists to inform on the potential subsidenceimpacts upon deeper brackish groundwater development. Data were compiled,and multiple hydrologic parameters were utilized to improve theunderstanding of the brackish resources within the study area. Geophysicallogs were compiled and analysed to refine the aquifer stratigraphy,determine the binary classification of sand and clay, and estimate thegroundwater salinity. These data were used to develop a MODFLOW groundwaterflow model to estimate the risk of compaction and land subsidence upon thedevelopment of brackish zones within the Jasper aquifer. Compiled datadetailing the total clay thickness, clay bed thickness, and clay bedlocation were input into the model along with a hypothetical stress topredict compaction within the Jasper aquifer across the study area whileincorporating the observed heterogeneity in clay properties. Using theresults from the model simulations and two other risk performance measures(depth of burial and surface flood risk), the total subsidence normalizedrisk score was estimated. The results of this study confirm the potentialfor compaction in the Jasper aquifer and for land subsidence to occur upondevelopment. Areas with the highest risk are located in the up-dip, inlandareas, near where the aquifer becomes fresh and is currently used formunicipal supply. The results will inform water managers and planners in theHouston area on the future availability of brackish groundwater resources.

Assessment of Subsidence Risk Associated with Brackish Groundwater Development in the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer, Houston, Texas, USA