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. The Selenga River, which originates in Mongolia, contributesnearly 50 % of the total inflow into Lake Baikal. Since 1996, the longestlow-flow period has been observed. This paper focuses on the spatiallydistributed process-based modeling to assess possible runoff changes underclimate projections in the XXI century using an ensemble of global climatemodels (GCMs) from ISI-MIP2 (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model IntercomparisonProject, phase 2) and RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway)as inputs. The ECOMAG hydrological model was applied to simulate possiblerunoff changes in the Selenga River basin. According to the simulations, thelow-flow runoff into Lake Baikal will be continued throughout the XXIcentury under all the RCP-scenarios. Furthermore, as hydrologicalprojections for the future are characterized by significant climateprojections uncertainty, ANOVA (analyses of variance) test was used toquantify the sources of this uncertainty. The calculations showed that thecontribution of the model uncertainty (differences between GCMs) is muchhigher than the contribution of the scenario uncertainty (variability ofRCP-scenarios) although it increases at the end of the century.

Projections of Selenga river runoff in the XXI century and uncertainty estimates