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. Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays animportant role on China's agricultural production and food security. Andsurface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine thestatus of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusseshow it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we usedin this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological InformationCenter which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. ATobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influenceof climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climatevariables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface waterirrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supplyreliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positivelyinfluences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides,climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves ourunderstanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation andwater supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basisfor relevant policy making.

Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change