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. The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland riverbasin, located in the arid region of Northwest China with a serious watershortage. Evaluation of water productivity will provide scientificimplications for agricultural water-saving in irrigated areas of the aridregion under climate change. Based on observed meteorological data, 23 GCMsoutputs and the ERA-40 reanalysis data, an assemble statistical downscalingmodel was developed to generate climate change scenarios under RCP2.6,RCP4.5, RCP8.5 respectively, which were then used to drive the SWAP-EPICmodel to simulate crop growth in the irrigated areas of the middle HRB forthe future period from 2018 to 2047. Crop yield showed an increasing trend,while crop water consumption decreased gradually in Gaotai and Ganzhouirrigated areas. The water productivity in future 30 years showed anincreasing trend in both Gaotai and Ganzhou areas, with the most significantincrease under RCP4.5 scenario, which were both larger than 2 kg m −3 .Compared with that of the period from 2012 to 2015, the water productivityduring 2018–2047 under three RCP scenarios increased by 9.2, 14.3and 11.8 % in the Gaotai area, and 15.4, 21.6, 19.9 % in theGanzhou area, respectively.

proceedings of iahs

Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model