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Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and\udcultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel.\udIn a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and\udpredicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains\udchallenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there\udis no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations\udcoming from climate models.\ud  \udThe Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years\udthat can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water\udcycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective\udof this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to\udhighly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate\udrecords and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a\udvegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy\udand vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term\udclimate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation\udregimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for\udthe driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios\ud(+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming\udscenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual\udfuture 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced\udby these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and\udits components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases\udin transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with\udhighest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil\udtemperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the\udstrong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand\udpotential future climate variations

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel